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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Julie L. Jones

Florida Department of Corrections
Julie L. Jones, Secretary

Factors in Order of Predictability

Listed below are the factors in order of importance followed by an 'H' if the factor is associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism and an 'L' for a lower likelihood of recidivism.

Males

  1. Supervision Following Prison – H
  2. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  3. Age at Release – L
  4. Number of Disciplinary Reports while in Prison – H
  5. Number of Burglary Offenses – H
  6. Gang Member Suspected or Confirmed – H
  7. Most Recent TABE (Educational Level) Score – L
  8. Number of Visits Inmate Gets 12 Months Prior to Release – L
  9. Number of Theft Offenses – H
  10. Hispanic Ethnicity – L
  11. Low Custody – L
  12. Number of Other Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  13. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  14. Inmate has Sex Offenses within 15 Years Prior to Admission – H
  15. Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  16. Inmate has NO Spouse – H
  17. Inmate has Other Negative Influences in their Life – H
  18. Inmate has Murder Offense within 15 Years Prior to Admission - L

Females

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Supervision Following Prison - H
  3. Age at First Offense – L
  4. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  5. Low Custody - L
  6. Number of Visits Inmate Gets 12 Months Prior to Release – L
  7. Worst Offense is Murder - L
  8. Inmate Feels Animosity towards their Attorney - L
  9. Number of Drug Offenses – L
  10. Family has a Negative Influence on the Inmate – H
  11. Inmate Concerned about Child's Welfare – H

The factors that affect male recidivism rates, but not female rates are:

  1. Number of Discipline Reports while in Prison
  2. Age upon Release
  3. Number of Other Violent Offenses
  4. Number of Theft Offenses
  5. Number of Burglary Offenses
  6. Inmate is Hispanic
  7. No Spouse
  8. Gang Membership
  9. Sex Offense within 15 years Prior to Admission
  10. Education Level

The factors that affect female recidivism rates, but not male rates are:

  1. Age at First Offense
  2. Inmate Concerned about Child's Welfare
  3. Inmate Feels Animosity towards their Attorney

The factors that affect both male recidivism and female recidivism in the same direction are (not in order of importance):

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments
  2. Supervision to Follow
  3. Low Custody
  4. Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score
  5. Negative Influence (Male-Other Negative Influence; Female-Family Negative Influence)
  6. Murder Offense
  7. Number of Visits Inmate Gets 12 Months Prior to Release

The factor Drug Offense is associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism rate for males and a lower likelihood of recidivism rate for females. Not considering the other factors, the hazard ratio of male inmate with a drug offense (within 5 years prior to admission) is 1.027 (Table 2), while female inmate with a drug offense is 0.963 (Table 4).

Table 5: Factors Not Included in the Model

Factor Value Overall Releases 2010 Percent of Release Cohort Recidivism Rate
Release Type Expiration of Sentence (No Supervision to Follow) 21,118 65% 20%
Conditional Release (mandatory supervision for serious offenders as specified in F.S. 947.1405) 4,899 15% 42%
Expiration of Sentence to Probation or Community Control (Split Sentence) 4,554 14% 36%
Release Facility Major Correctional Institution 25,631 81% 27%
Work/Forestry Camp 1,971 6% 22%
Community Release Center / Transition Center 3,544 11% 15%

Note that the results presented in Table 5 do not constitute a rigorous evaluation of any factor. For example, it is not valid to claim that if all inmates went to Work Release Centers, one would realize a lower overall recidivism rate. Inmates who succeed at work release do not have the same characteristics as many other inmates, meaning the work release impact would likely be different if expanded to include a broader group of inmates.



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